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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."